Presidential Transitions? There’s a Book for That

When President-elect Biden is sworn in at noon this Wednesday, it will mark the start of a new administration. But it will also mark the end of the presidential transition, a critical period of ~75 days between the general election and inauguration when information is transferred from the outgoing team to the incoming one. It is a period of challenges and opportunities which can set the tone for the next four years.

Professor Martha Joynt Kumar’s Before the Oath digs into the gritty details of how this period has evolved, focusing in particular on how the Bush-Obama transition serves as a model for excellence in the future. Through dozens of insider interviews, Kumar paints a picture of incoming and outgoing officials who managed the transition and set it up for success. As recent events have made all too clear, we cannot take the peaceful transfer of power for granted. Studying past transitions, good and bad, is the surest way to improve them in the future. (And while you’re at it, make sure to check out the rest of PMAA’s reading list!)

An incoming administration needs to recruit, vet, and appoint people to over 1,200 positions. Before inauguration, the president-elect’s team must gather information from the departing team in an organized maner (the incoming Obama organization used templates covering “such diverse functions and institutions as national security memoranda, contingency plans gathered by the National Security Council, and information gathered by the President’s Management Council on department and agency programs and operations” [pg. 9]). Members of the president-elect’s “agency review teams” request briefings from the incumbent officials in order to learn the ins and outs of the institutions they are taking over, as well as what threats and opportunities are on the horizon.

Excerpt from memo to agency review teams, 11/9/2008. Courtesy of The Partnership for Public Service.

Much of the information exchange happens under the strictures of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by the incoming and outgoing teams. In the case of the Bush-Obama transition, the Bush Administration signed such an MOU with both Obama and McCain’s campaigns, so that regardless of who won, the president-elect’s review teams would be able to start interacting with departments and agencies quickly after the election.

National security is an area of particular concern during a transition. Attackers might, as they did in January 2009 when terrorists considered attacking President Obama’s inauguration, seek to take advantage of the inherent disorganization of transition. Briefing incoming national security officials is one of the few things that an outgoing administration is required by law to do (the other being to handle presidential records appropriately, including sending the vast majority to the National Archives and Records Administration). 

Reading Before the Oath in 2021

Before the Oath provides the reader with insights not just from the Bush-Obama transition, but also from the nine that preceded it. Especially in light of recent events, this history grants the reader broad perspective when engaging with one of Kumar’s key questions: are we slowly but surely mastering the necessary mindset and tactics that make for a safe and smooth transition? Or is each transition its own beast, with the success or failure of the transition left largely up to the two administrations leading it? Scholars like Kumar will surely have much to add after this latest transition wraps up. 

Despite the antagonistic relationship publicly on display between the Biden and Trump teams, the president-elect has demonstrated just how much can be accomplished without assistance from the outgoing administration. Biden’s team was able to publicly fundraise more than $10 million for transition activities while waiting for the $8 million in federal support allocated for those activities. Furthermore, Biden nominated personnel for the Cabinet and other key positions significantly faster than the average administration.

Screenshot of WHTP’s transition progress page: https://www.whitehousetransitionproject.org/#monitor

Future Transitions

As Before the Oath highlights, “there are no constitutional requirements or guidelines for the shape of the transition nor the actions that the incoming and outgoing administrations should take during this period” [pg. 8]. But neither are transitions the wild west they once were -- the Presidential Transition Act, the Pre-Election Presidential Transition Act of 2010, and other legislation, has provided important guide rails. In addition to formal law, there is also a growing cadre of transition veterans in both major parties, as well as career civil servants who can draw on past experience and bring best practices to bear.  

In the coming years, legislators and experts alike will no doubt consider options to counter any perceived shortcomings of the Trump-Biden transition. Already, questions about the role of GSA in the ascertainment process and the length of the transition process have been raised. After all, as Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay conclude in a recent Foreign Affairs piece, “[a]t ten weeks, [U.S.] presidential transitions are too long to be reassuring, too short to be thorough, but just the right length to cause trouble.”

Whatever path these changes take, Before the Oath is a necessary read for anyone keen to understand the evolution of presidential transitions, the challenges and opportunities awaiting an incoming administration, and the sheer force of will it takes to safely and smoothly hand the reins of government from one administration to another. 

Coda

Professor Martha Joynt Kumar co-chairs the White House Transition Project, where you can find much, much more information on this topic. If you don’t have time to read all ~250 pages of Before the Oath, make sure to check out PMAA’s 1-hour recorded panel on the practicalities of a transition for incoming administrations.

Disclaimer

PMAA is a nonpartisan, non-lobbying organization.